We are on the threshold of a landmark agreement and there is varied opinion on the nuclear deal. Is the deal good for India, should we surrender to the policies of the US, is this a bait to stop strengthening our nuclear arsenal etc. The UPA government needs a count of 272 to stay in power and sign the deal. Horse trading and black mailing has already begun to vote in favour or against the government. We are not sure how many of the country's representatives are aware of the deal but as citizens of India I believe it is our responsibility to know about the ABC's of the nuclear deal.
Countries with H Bomb
There are ten countries that possesses nuclear arsenal. They are USA, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran and North Korea
USA, Russia, Britain, France, China, Iran and North Korea signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and India, Israel and Pakistan have refused to sign it. The treaty is aimed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and any country that signs up for the treaty should refrain from possessing nuclear weapons. North Korea which signed the treaty earlier, withdrew from it and tested its own bomb. Similarly Iran has also violated the treaty and possesses the dreaded bomb. India has strongly refused to sign the treaty and performed nuclear testing on 1974 and 1998.
Big brother is watching
There is one country who claims to be the big brother of all countries and decides what is good and bad for others. In the name of "War on Terror" they were able to successfully get rid of Saddam Hussein and also create a military base for themselves in Afghanistan. They are not too worried about Israel possessing nuclear weapons because Washington holds the key to it. Iran is being threatened now in the name of invasion hoping that Iran would decommission its nuclear facilities. North Korea has been coerced over the years to abandon it's weapons program. Pakistan is an ally of Washington and depends entirely on US. There were also rumors that the US sent troops to Pakistan to safe guard its nuclear facilities and preventing it from falling into al-qaeda hands during the Afghan war. US has enough information on Pakistan's nuclear facilities that would help them to decommission or destroy it if necessary. That leaves us with India.
India - Until Now
India is the world's largest democracy and has a growing economy. US cannot follow the same route as it did to the other countries to stop India from building its nuclear arms. US tried by imposing sanctions after the nuclear test that India made on 1998. But India was able to recover and showed the world that it could handle things on its own. Also it is important to note that India has claimed that it would use nuclear energy only for peaceful purpose and the nuclear weapons would only act as a deterrent. The nuclear power plants are not under IAEA supervision. No one knows which facility is used for power generation and which one is used for arms manufacture. Also no one knows the methodology that India has to produce nuclear energy.
But still India has few problems that it needs to address. India has to depend on other countries for Uranium, the raw material, for nuclear reactors. Also the uranium has to be shared for power generation and weapons manufacture. It's important to note that until now India has only around 15 nuclear bombs. The Big 5 countries have close to 25000 bombs among themselves. India produces close to 3 % of power through nuclear power plants whereas the Big 5 produce an average of 16% using nuclear power. India's power consumption is addressed through thermal and Oil. The cost of producing thermal energy has gone up and the cost of oil has risen considerably. Moreover both the thermal and Oil power generation produces lots of pollution whereas power generated through nuclear is clean.
To catch with other growing economies like China & Brazil, India needs to speed up its industrial production and is severely lacking in power.
The Nuclear Deal
Let's come back to the big brother. US found out that it cannot stop India from building nuclear arms but at the same time it found out the weakness that India had with respect to the shortage of raw material for nuclear plants. A deal is drafted and it is placed on the table. According to the deal, Mr Bush says
"Look Boss. I know that you are looking for uninterrupted supply of Uranium. Why do you worry when your big brother is there. Ask and you shall receive".
Wow!! Seems like a very good deal. India is ready to sign it up when our brother interrupts and says
"But.....There is one condition. I believe you have 22 nuclear reactors in India. I am interested in giving you Uranium but I don't want you to build bombs from it. You should use the unlimited fuel that I give for power generation alone. Is that a deal."
Yeah. It seems valid enough. India is ready to sign but still there is nothing called a free lunch.
"Oh. There is one more thing I forgot to tell you. Look. No one knows what is going on inside your power plants. So I cannot know if you are going to use my fuel for power generation. What if you use for building nuclear arms? So I propose that you separate your nuclear facilities into two groups. One for civilian purpose and the other for military purpose. Can we call it a deal?"
A time to think. But still why would we want to build a nuclear arsenal. One or two bombs is enough for Pakistan and China cannot be stopped anyway. But I get unlimited supply for power generation which is important for our growing economy. Are there any other clause, Mr. Bush?
"Nothing else. But I believe that you will give good welcome to our friends from the IAEA...What's that look on your face? Our friends from IAEA will inspect your civilian reactors to make sure that all your requirements are met. It's nothing but an informal audit. Don't worry about that. They won't visit your military facilities. You military secrets will not be leaked by them. I promise on that."
But Mr. Bush. Everything looks wonderful. But what's the catch?
"Oh. There's no catch. Customer satisfaction is very important for us. Don't worry. Please go ahead and sign on all those places marked x."
But sir. Why do we need a 30 page document for such a simple deal. The terms and conditions are printed so small that I cannot even read them and I need to sign on all these pages. What happens when I do more testing. Will I be punished for that? Do I have to pay any penalty?
"Oh. Don't worry. It's too early to talk about those things. We can handle them when it comes. But remember that India currently produces only 3% of energy by nuclear means. It will move up to 6% by 2020. Isn't that a great achievement?"
The Verdict
The arguments that are put forward by those opposing the deal are
- We are selling out our military secrets
- US will dictate us and will ask us to follow their policies
- If US decides to invade Iran, it would ask for India's help in setting up a military base in India.
- We cannot build our nuclear arsenal
- The terms and conditions are not clear if we decide to cancel the deal later
The arguments that are put forth by those supporting the deal
- We get unlimited supply of fuel for power generation
- The economy would grow
- Even if we cancel the deal later and US puts a sanction on us, we will be economically strong enough to take care of ourselves
I believe this is going to be a landmark decision and where our country is going to proceed might depend a lot based on this deal. Are we going to join hands with the US or are we going to take our own path remains to be seen.
So Dear readers. Do you think this is a good deal? Are you for it or against it?